Department of Psychological and Brain Sciences, Boston University;
Matthew S. Panizzon
Department of Psychiatry, University of California, San Diego
Weijian Liu
Department of Biostatistics, Saint Louis University School of Public Health
Ruth McKenzie
Department of Psychological and Brain Sciences, Boston University
Noah J. Bluestone
Department of Psychological and Brain Sciences, Boston University
Michael D. Grant
Department of Psychology, Ohio University
Carol E. Franz
Department of Psychiatry, University of California, San Diego
Eero P. Vuoksimaa
Department of Public Health, University of Helsinki
Rosemary Toomey
Department of Psychological and Brain Sciences, Boston University
Kristen C. Jacobson
Department of Psychiatry & Behavioral Neuroscience, University of Chicago
Chandra A. Reynolds
Department of Psychology, University of California, Riverside
William S. Kremen
Department of Psychiatry, University of California, San Diego, and VA San Diego Center of Excellence for Stress and Mental Health, San Diego, California
Hong Xian
Department of Biostatistics, Saint Louis University School of Public Health
Acknowledgement: William S. Kremen and Hong Xian contributed equally to this article.
The content of this article is the responsibility of the authors and does not represent official views of NIA/NIH, or the Veterans’ Administration. Numerous organizations provided invaluable assistance in the conduct of the VET Registry, including the following: U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs, Department of Defense; National Personnel Records Center, National Archives and Records Administration; Internal Revenue Service; National Opinion Research Center; National Research Council, National Academy of Sciences; the Institute for Survey Research, Temple University. The authors gratefully acknowledge the continued cooperation of the twins and the efforts of many staff members. The study was supported by awards from the National Institutes of Health/National Institute on Aging [R01s AG018386, AG022381, AG022982, AG050595 to W.S.K.; R01 AG018384 to M.J.L.; R03 AG 046413 to C.E.F, and K08 AG047903 to M.S.P].
Studies of general cognitive ability (GCA) have emphasized its substantial stability through midlife (
We are aware of two longitudinal nontwin studies that used mixture modeling to identify different cognitive trajectories of GCA in old age (
The goals of the present study are to examine stability and change in GCA across four decades from young adulthood to late middle age by addressing the following questions: (a) Is there change in mean GCA and genetic and environmental influences on GCA over time? (b) To what extent are individual differences in change in GCA influenced by genetic and environmental factors? and (c) Do reliably different trajectory subgroups suggest heterogeneity in patterns of change in GCA over time?
Participants were drawn from the nationally representative Vietnam Era Twin Registry (VETR;
Age 20 GCA scores were obtained from military records by the VETR for nearly all (N = 1273; 98.8%) participants. Age 56 GCA scores were collected from all 1,288 men in VETSA 1 and age 62 scores were collected from 1,008 men in VETSA 2. There were 1,291 unique individuals with an AFQT score from at least one age. Participants in VETSA 1 and VETSA 2 were assessed at one of the two testing sites (Boston University [BU] and the University of California, San Diego [UCSD]) or, in rare circumstances, elected to have a research assistant travel to them. Written informed consent was obtained from all participants. The studies were approved by the BU and UCSD Institutional Review Boards. Zygosity was determined by analysis of 25 microsatellite markers. The sample included 349 complete monozygotic (MZ) pairs and 265 complete dizygotic (DZ) pairs. At age 56 years 78.7% were married, 5.5% single, 1.5% widowed, not remarried, 1.1% separated, and 13.2% were divorced, not remarried; 86.8% were non-Hispanic white. The mean education level at age 56 was 13.9 years (SD = 2.1; range 8 – 20 years).
The AFQT is a 50-min paper-and-pencil test consisting of 100 multiple-choice items that was originally administered just before military induction (
Genetically informed latent growth curve modeling
A genetically informed latent growth curve (LGC) model was fit to the data using the maximum likelihood-based structural equation modeling software package OpenMx in an R environment (
Latent class growth analysis (LCGA)
LCGA, a type of Growth Mixture Modeling, was applied using MPLUS 7.4 (
The mean AFQT score at age 20 was 61.2 (SD = 22.2; 95% CI [59.85, 62.42]). The mean AFQT score at age 56 was 64.1 (SD = 20.9; 95% CI [62.96, 65.24]) and the mean AFQT score at age 62 was 62.9 (SD = 21.7; 95% CI [61.56, 64.24]). The differences between 95% CIs were quite small. The phenotypic correlations among the AFQT scores at the three ages ranged from 0.73 to 0.85 (see
The mean time between Wave 1 (Induction) and Wave 2 (VETSA 1) was 36.16 years (SD = 2.37; variance = 5.60). The mean time between Wave 1 (Induction) and Wave 3 (VETSA 2) was 41.81 years (SD = 2.30; variance = 5.27).
Prior to fitting the genetically informed LGC model, we first estimated the genetic and environmental variance components for each observed variable, as well as the genetic and environmental correlations among the variables, using a trivariate Cholesky decomposition. Results from this analysis are presented in
The genetically informed LGC model provided a good fit to the data (−2LL = 7043.372; DF = 3543; AIC = −42.6283; RMSEA = 0.0111; CFI = 0.9969; TLI = 0.9965) and revealed evidence for slight, but nevertheless significant changes in GCA across time. Without accounting for the effects of age at military induction, we observed a significant slope estimate of 0.073 (95% CI: 0.034 to 0.111), suggesting very slight increases in GCA between the ages of 20 and 62. Age at induction, however, was found to have significant effects on both the Intercept and Slope factors. Age at Induction had a positive association (β = 0.130) with Intercept, indicating that older participants performed better than younger participants. In contrast, a negative effect of age at induction was observed for slope (β = −0.111). The nature of the effect was such that younger participants had positive slope estimates (indicating improvement in performance over time), whereas older participants had negative slope estimates (indicating performance declines). The genetic and environmental influences of Intercept and Slope are reported in
A four-class solution provided the best fit to the data in the LCGA considering the four indices, BIC, Entropy, VLMR-LRT, and Adj-LRT. BIC values dropped with each subsequently added class, however, the drop in BIC lessened notably after the 4-class solution. Entropy was equivocal for the 2-, 3-, and 4-class solutions hovering at .80 [range = .794–.801], but fell afterward <0.77. The VLMR-LRT and Adj-LRT were significant for 2- though 6-class solutions indicating improved fit, however class sizes became smaller with some <10% (see
Consistent with other studies of GCA spanning midlife (
There is substantial evidence that genetic factors influence level of cognitive functioning in adulthood (
There was an interesting difference in the effect of age at induction on Slope versus Intercept. Individuals who were older at the time of induction were more likely to have attended college whereas those who were younger at the time of induction were more likely to only have a high school education. This educational difference at induction may be related to differences in GCA at the time of military induction. Individuals who were younger at the time of military induction may have been more likely to pursue additional education after leaving the military and this might contribute to the positive Slope associated with younger age at induction.
Our study does not demonstrate meaningful heterogeneity in patterns of change in GCA. Approximately 39% of our sample was in the only trajectory group that had a significant Slope; the modest magnitude of the group’s Slope suggests that it is not meaningful. The other three trajectory groups did not have significant Slopes. Although requiring replication, our results suggest that there is little heterogeneity in patterns of change in GCA over the course of middle adulthood.
There are several limitations to the current study. Because the sample includes only men and is primarily Caucasian, it is unknown whether our findings are applicable to women or racial/ethnic minorities. Because we measured GCA, we cannot determine whether and how specific cognitive abilities change. GCA tends to demonstrate more phenotypic stability compared to less generalized measures of cognitive ability (
This study aimed to address three questions about GCA across four decades from young adulthood to late middle age by addressing the following questions. (a) Is there change in mean GCA and genetic and environmental variance in GCA over time? Although our genetically informed LGC model demonstrated slight changes in GCA across time, the magnitude of these changes in terms of absolute level and the overlapping confidence intervals suggests the change is not meaningful. Moreover, the very substantial correlations among GCA on each occasion indicated very substantial rank-order stability. Estimates of the heritability of GCA at the three ages were similar, ranging from .59 to .66 with overlapping confidence intervals. The shared environment did not significantly influence GCA at any age. The nonshared environment explained from 25% and 29% of the variance in GCA over the three ages and there was substantial overlap in the confidence intervals. Overall, the levels of GCA, the rank-order of individuals, and the genetic and environmental determinants of GCA did not change meaningfully during the 42 years of observation. (b) To what extent are individual differences in change in GCA influenced by genetic and environmental factors? Our results demonstrated that genetic factors are primarily responsible for the stability of GCA and the nonshared environment is primarily responsible for individual differences in change. Our results suggest that there is no overlap between genetic factors that influence one’s cognitive ability at age 20 and genetic influences on how those abilities are maintained or changed over the course of middle adulthood. (c) Do reliably different trajectory subgroups suggest heterogeneity in patterns of change in GCA over time? We identified four distinct trajectory groups. The groups differed in initial levels of GCA. However, the four trajectories were essentially parallel over time, with each of the four groups demonstrating a flat trajectory; there were no differences in ‘pattern.’
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Submitted: January 25, 2016 Revised: December 14, 2016 Accepted: December 20, 2016