Uncertainty in Land-Use Adaptation Persists Despite Crop Model Projections Showing Lower Impacts Under High Warming
In: Communications Earth & Environment, Jg. 4 (2023-08-10)
Online
report
Zugriff:
Climate change is expected to impact crop yields and alter resource availability. However, the understanding of the potential of agricultural land-use adaptation and its costs under climate warming is limited. Here, we use a global land system model to assess land-use-based adaptation and its cost under a set of crop model projections, including CO2 fertilization, based on climate model outputs. In our simulations of a low-emissions scenario, the land system responds through slight changes in cropland area in 2100, with costs close to zero. For a high emissions scenario and impacts uncertainty, the response tends toward cropland area changes and investments in technology, with average adaptation costs between −1.5 and +19 US$05 per ton of dry matter per year. Land-use adaptation can reduce adverse climate effects and use favorable changes, like local gains in crop yields. However, variance among high-emissions impact projections creates challenges for effective adaptation planning.
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Uncertainty in Land-Use Adaptation Persists Despite Crop Model Projections Showing Lower Impacts Under High Warming
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Autor/in / Beteiligte Person: | Edna J Molina Bacca ; Stevanović, Miodrag ; Benjamin Leon Bodirsky ; Karstens, Kristine ; David Meng-Chuen Chen ; Leip, Debbora ; Müller, Christoph ; Minoli, Sara ; Heinke, Jens ; Jägermeyr, Jonas ; Folberth, Christian ; Iizumi, Toshichika ; Atul K Jain ; Liu, Wenfeng ; Okada, Masashi ; Smerald, Andrew ; Zabel, Florian ; Lotze-Campen, Hermann ; Popp, Alexander |
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Zeitschrift: | Communications Earth & Environment, Jg. 4 (2023-08-10) |
Veröffentlichung: | United States: NASA Center for Aerospace Information (CASI), 2023 |
Medientyp: | report |
ISSN: | 2662-4435 (print) |
DOI: | 10.1038/s43247-023-00941-z |
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