The impacts of increasing water scarcity and the potential for water-related conflict in Lamu, Kenya

In the age of climate change, the efficient allocation, distribution and use of water raises complex issues for water management, with far-reaching and often contentious consequences. As water becomes scarcer, water-related tensions are imminent on different scales. It is the interplay of these tensions with a number of socioeconomic, political, environmental and cultural factors that determine the probability of conflict. Lamu, found in the coastal part of Kenya, is a unique location in that access to water is already a major challenge. Combined with the negative impacts of climate change, and the ongoing large infrastructural development in the region, Lamu is on the verge of a water crisis. As such, there is a need for research into the context-specific factors that play a part in heightening the potential for water-related conflict amidst increasing water scarcity. The focus of this study was to identify and evaluate the context-specific factors that will amplify the potential for water-related conflict in Lamu. The findings suggest religion, migration, and poverty are factors that would heighten the potential for water-related conflict in the region amidst increasing water scarcity. The study recommends that these factors need to be addressed urgently and should be part of any water management mechanism in Lamu, in order to avoid water-related conflicts. Additionally, the findings imply that anticipating the stressors for water-related conflict in Lamu will play a significant role in managing conflict and facilitating negotiations over the region's water resources. HIGHLIGHTS The study identifies ways through which water scarcity can be managed to avoid water-related conflict.; The findings provide an indication of factors that should be considered, in context, for any water governance mechanism to effectively manage water.; The findings are useful in the field of climate change adaptation in Africa, as water scarcity will likely be increased as a result of the impacts of climate change.;