Validating 'GIS-UBEM' - a residential open data-driven urban building energy model

The study of energy consumption in buildings, particularly residential ones, brings with it significant socio-economic and environmental implications, as it accounts for approximately 40% of CO2 emissions, 18% in the case of residential buildings, in Europe. On a number of levels, energy consumption serves as a key parameter in urban sustainability indicators and energy plans. Access to data on energy consumption is crucial for energy planning, management, knowledge generation, and awareness. Urban Building Energy Models (UBEMs), which are emerging tools for simulating energy consumption at neighborhood scale, allow for more efficient intervention and energy rehabilitation planning. However, UBEM validation requires reliable reference data, which are often challenging to obtain at urban scale due to privacy concerns and data accessibility issues. Recent advances, such as automation and open data utilization, are proving promising in addressing these challenges. This study aims to provide a standardized UBEM validation process by presenting a case study that was carried out utilizing open data to develop bottom-up engineering models of residential energy demand at urban scale, with a resolution level of individual buildings, and a subsequent adjustment and validation using reference tools. This study confirms that the validated GIS-UBEM model heating and cooling demands and consumption fall within the confidence bands of ±15% and ±12.5%, i.e., the confidence bands required for the approval of official alternative simulation methods for energy certification. This paves the way for its application in urban-scale studies and practices with a well-established margin of confidence, covering a wide range of building typologies, construction models, and climates comparable to those considered in the validation process. The primary application of this model is to determine the starting point and subsequent evaluation of improvement scenarios at a district scale, examining issues such as massive energy rehabilitation ...