Impact of a +2°C climate on the emission of biogenic volatile organic compounds and on air quality ; Impact d'un climat à +2°C sur les émissions des composés biogéniques volatils et sur la qualité de l'air

Once Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) are released into the atmosphere, they play a major role in altering its chemistry and composition, consequently impacting the global climate. VOCs released from natural sources account for 90% of the total emitted VOCs, which makes Biogenic Volatile Organic Compounds (BVOCs) a key contributor to the formation of several air pollutants. The influence of BVOCs goes beyond air quality concerns, as they can impact the climate through the formation of aerosols which have a cooling effect and greenhouse gases which have a warming effect, thus effecting the Earth's net radiative forcing. Conversely, climate can effect the release of biogenic species through global warming, land cover and land use change, drought and increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. The present work aims to evaluate how BVOCs emission will evolve in a +2°C climate change conditions and how this change will effect air quality in the future.For this purpose, a consequent work was undertaken to couple the SURFEX (SURface Externalisée in French) and MEGAN (Model of Emission of Gases and Aerosols from Nature) models. The coupled model SURFEX-MEGAN will allow the simulation of future emissions of biogenic species along with other important emission key drivers such as leaf area index, soil moisture, soil temperature, etc.The impact of climate change on isoprene emissions was assessed by conducting two global simulations representing present- and future-climate conditions over 2010-2014 and 2046-2050, respectively. The results of this study indicate a global increase of isoprene emissions by 13% (40Tg). This change account for the effect of temperature, solar radiation and atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Temperature have the highest positive effect. Solar radiation have a negative effect as it decreased under the SSP3-7.0 scenario and CO2 concentrations have both positive and negative effects. The former arises from the CO2 fertilization effect and the latter from the CO2 inhibition effect. The SURFEX-MEGAN ...