Seroprevalence and risk factors of SARS-CoV-2 infection in an urban informal settlement in Nairobi, Kenya, December 2020 [version 2; peer review: 2 approved]

Introduction: Urban informal settlements may be disproportionately affected by the COVID-19 pandemic due to overcrowding and other socioeconomic challenges that make adoption and implementation of public health mitigation measures difficult. We conducted a seroprevalence survey in the Kibera informal settlement, Nairobi, Kenya, to determine the extent of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Methods: Members of randomly selected households from an existing population-based infectious disease surveillance (PBIDS) provided blood specimens between 27th November and 5th December 2020. The specimens were tested for antibodies to the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein. Seroprevalence estimates were weighted by age and sex distribution of the PBIDS population and accounted for household clustering. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify risk factors for individual seropositivity. Results: Consent was obtained from 523 individuals in 175 households, yielding 511 serum specimens that were tested. The overall weighted seroprevalence was 43.3% (95% CI, 37.4 – 49.5%) and did not vary by sex. Of the sampled households, 122(69.7%) had at least one seropositive individual. The individual seroprevalence increased by age from 7.6% (95% CI, 2.4 – 21.3%) among children (<5 years), 32.7% (95% CI, 22.9 – 44.4%) among children 5 – 9 years, 41.8% (95% CI, 33.0 – 51.1%) for those 10-19 years, and 54.9%(46.2 – 63.3%) for adults (≥20 years). Relative to those from medium-sized households (3 and 4 individuals), participants from large (≥5 persons) households had significantly increased odds of being seropositive, aOR, 1.98(95% CI, 1.17 – 1.58), while those from small-sized households (≤2 individuals) had increased odds but not statistically significant, aOR, 2.31 (95% CI, 0.93 – 5.74). Conclusion: In densely populated urban settings, close to half of the individuals had an infection to SARS-CoV-2 after eight months of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya. This highlights the importance to prioritize mitigation measures, including COVID-19 vaccine .