Seeking more robust early warning signals for climate tipping points: the ratio of spectra method (ROSA)
In: Environmental Research Letters, Vol 18, Iss 3, p 035006 (2023, Jg. 18 (2023), Heft 3, p 035006
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Zugriff:
Potential tipping points in the Earth System present challenges for society and ecosystems, especially as the global warming thresholds at which these may be triggered remain uncertain. Fortunately, a theory of ‘critical slowing down’ has been developed which could warn of approaching tipping points. Applications of this theory often implicitly assume stationary white-noise forcing, itself requiring a clean separation between forced trends and variability, which is especially difficult under contemporary climate change. This paper proposes a modified method to derive early warning signal in a system, such as the climate, which is forced by time correlated processes. The method looks at the ratio of spectra (ROSA) of a system state variable relative to a forcing variable. We demonstrate the ROSA method on an idealised forced dynamical system, before applying it to a particular challenging example from the Earth System: dieback of the Amazon rainforest. We show that ROSA identifies more examples of abrupt transitions in the Amazon than conventional early warning signals in state-of-the-art CMIP6 Earth System Models.
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Seeking more robust early warning signals for climate tipping points: the ratio of spectra method (ROSA)
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Autor/in / Beteiligte Person: | Joseph J Clarke ; Huntingford, Chris ; Paul D L Ritchie ; Peter M Cox |
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Zeitschrift: | Environmental Research Letters, Vol 18, Iss 3, p 035006 (2023, Jg. 18 (2023), Heft 3, p 035006 |
Veröffentlichung: | IOP Publishing, 2023 |
Medientyp: | academicJournal |
ISSN: | 1748-9326 (print) |
DOI: | 10.1088/1748-9326/acbc8d |
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