Análise estatística multivariada de métodos de vulnerabilidade física em zonas costeiras tropicais ; Multivariate statistical analysis of physical vulnerability methods in tropical coastal zones

Reduce subjectivity, common in studies of physical vulnerability, was the aim of this research, which evaluated the methods Natural Vulnerability (NV), Environmental Vulnerability (EV) and the proposed Environmental Vulnerability to mean Sea Level Rise (EVSLR) through Principal Component Analysis (PCA) of the environmental variables and associated weighting. The coastal municipalities of Macau and Guamaré, in Rio Grande do Norte state, northeastern Brazil, feature multiple confl icts of land use/land cover since the main economic activities consist in the oil and gas industries, salt and shrimp farming, and wind power installed in segments of great environmental susceptibility to climate change impacts. The method with more pessimistic outcome was the NV and the method with a more optimistic was the EVSLR, who presented hotspot areas to higher relative sea level rising. The municipality of Guamaré presented upper physical vulnerability in all methods by displaying its coastal zone in fl at areas with low heights. According to the PCA all variables were important in NV and EV methods, but with diff erent intensity in each area. In EVSLR method the most important variables were geology, slope, and soil. These results may support the decision-making process for environmental managers and tested methods are replicable in both coastal as inner municipalities ; Reduzir a subjetividade, corriqueira em estudos de vulnerabilidade física, foi o objetivo desta pesquisa que avaliou os métodos Vulnerabilidade Natural (VN), Vulnerabilidade Ambiental (VA) e o método proposto Vulnerabilidade Ambiental ao aumento relativo do nível médio do mar (VNMM) por meio de Análise de Componentes Principais (ACP) das variáveis físicas e ponderações associadas. Os municípios costeiros de Macau e Guamaré, no estado do Rio Grande do Norte, Nordeste do Brasil, apresentam múltiplos conflitos de uso e ocupação do solo devido as principais atividades econômicas consistirem nas indústrias do petróleo e gás, carcinicultura, salinicultura e eólica ...