PREDVIĐANJE EMISIJE PM2.5 PRIMENOM VNM. (Bosnian)

Rapid economic and industrial development and the emission of various pollutants into the atmosphere result in increasing pressure on the environment. Particulate matter, PM2.5 represent one of the most significant atmospheric pollutants and one of the most significant indicators of air quality. In this sense, the monitoring of this pollutant is extremely important, especially if we take into account the negative consequences on human health caused by long-term exposure to this pollutant. The subject of this paper is the development of a model based on artificial neural networks (ANN) for the prediction of PM2.5 emissions at the national level. For the development of the model, a standard three-layer neural network with one input layer, one hidden layer and one output layer was used in this work. For the development of the ANN model, available data for 23 countries of Europe for the period from 2010 to 2019 were used. One of the most important segments in the development of the ANN model is the selection of the most important input parameters, i.e. those input parameters that have the greatest influence on the output. As industry and traffic have a significant effect on the emissions of PM2.5, in this paper 7 inputs were selected that were considered to contribute to the emissions of this pollutant. Industrial, economic and traffic indicators were used as input data for the development of the model: Energy productivity, Final energy consumption-total, Final energy consumption - transport sector, Final energy consumption in households, Modal split of passenger transport, Primary energy consumption and Gross domestic product. To evaluate the performance of the created model, the statistical performance indicator coefficient of determination R2 was used. The obtained results of the created ANN model show a very good agreement between the measured and the ANN model predicted PM2.5 emissions values, with the value of the coefficient of determination R-0.869. During the development of the ANN model, the significance of individual inputs was also assessed. It turned out that Final energy consumption in households and Gross domestic product have the greatest influence on PM2.5 emissions. Other inputs have a slightly smaller influence, but certainly significant. Bearing in mind the importance of PM2.5 as an atmospheric pollutant, the existence of alternative models, in addition to the existing ones, for estimating the emissions of this pollutant is of great importance. Based on the results of the model, it can be said that ANN can serve as an alternative model for estimating PM2.5 emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Brz ekonomski i industrijski razvoj i emisija zagađujućih materija u atmosferu rezultiraju sve većim pritiskom na životnu sredinu. Suspendovane čestice PM2.5 predstavljaju jedan od najznačajnijih zagađivača atmosfere i jedan od najznačajnijih pokazatelja kvaliteta vazduha. U tom smislu, monitoring ove zagađujuće materije je izuzetno važan, posebno ako se imaju u vidu negativne posledice po zdravlje ljudi izazvane dugotrajnom izlaganju ovom zagađivaču. Predmet ovog rada je razvoj modela zasnovanog na veštačkim neuronskim mrežama (VNM) za predviđanje emisije PM2.5 na nacionalnom nivou. Za razvoj modela u radu je korišćena standardna troslojna neuronska mreža sa jednim ulaznim slojem, jednim skrivenim slojem i jednim izlaznim slojem neurona. Za razvoj ANN modela korišćeni su dostupni podaci za 23 zemlje Evrope za period od 2010. do 2019. godine. Jedan od najvažnijih segmenata u razvoju ANN modela je izbor najvažnijih ulaznih parametara, odnosno onih ulaznih parametara koji imaju najveći uticaj na izlaz. Kako industrija i saobraćaj imaju značajan uticaj na emisiju PM2.5, u ovom radu je odabrano 7 ulaznih parametara za koje se smatra da doprinose emisiji ovog zagađivača. Kao ulazni podaci za razvoj modela korišćeni su industrijski, ekonomski i saobraćajni indikatori: Energetska produktivnost, Finalna potrošnja energije-ukupna, Finalna potrošnja energije - sektor saobraćaja, Finalna potrošnja energije u domaćinstvima, Udeo putničkog saobraćaja u ukupnom transportnom učinku, Potrošnja primarne energije i Bruto domaći proizvod. Za procenu performansi kreiranog modela korišćen je statistički indikator performansi koeficijent determinacije R2 . Dobijeni rezultati kreiranog VNM modela pokazuju veoma dobro slaganje izmerenih i VNM modelom predviđenih vrednosti emisije PM 2.5, sa vrednošću koeficijenta determinacije R2 -0.869. Tokom razvoja ANN modela procenjen je i značaj pojedinačnih inputa. Pokazalo se da finalna potrošnja energije u domaćinstvima i bruto domaći proizvod imaju najveći uticaj na emisiju PM2.5. Ostali inputi imaju nešto manji uticaj, ali svakako značajan. Imajući u vidu značaj PM2.5 kao zagađivača atmosfere, postojanje alternativnih modela, pored postojećih, za procenu emisije ovog zagađivača je od velikog značaja. Na osnovu rezultata modela, može se reći da ANN može poslužiti kao alternativni model za procenu emisije PM2.5. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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