Muted extratropical low cloud seasonal cycle is closely linked to underestimated climate sensitivity in models.
In: Nature Communications, Jg. 14 (2023-09-11), Heft 1, S. 1-11
Online
academicJournal
Zugriff:
A large spread in model estimates of the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), defined as the global mean near-surface air-temperature increase following a doubling of atmospheric CO 2 concentration, leaves us greatly disadvantaged in guiding policy-making for climate change adaptation and mitigation. In this study, we show that the projected ECS in the latest generation of climate models is highly related to seasonal variations of extratropical low-cloud fraction (LCF) in historical simulations. Marked reduction of extratropical LCF from winter to summer is found in models with ECS > 4.75 K, in accordance with the significant reduction of extratropical LCF under a warming climate in these models. In contrast, a pronounced seasonal cycle of extratropical LCF, as supported by satellite observations, is largely absent in models with ECS < 3.3 K. The distinct seasonality in extratropical LCF in climate models is ascribed to their different prevailing cloud regimes governing the extratropical LCF variability. The degree of warming following a doubling of atmospheric CO 2 concentration predicted in the low equilibrium climate sensitivity models can be underestimated due to their deficiencies in depicting seasonal low-cloud variations over the extra-tropics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Nature Communications is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
Titel: |
Muted extratropical low cloud seasonal cycle is closely linked to underestimated climate sensitivity in models.
|
---|---|
Autor/in / Beteiligte Person: | Jiang, Xianan ; Su, Hui ; Jiang, Jonathan H. ; Neelin, J. David ; Wu, Longtao ; Tsushima, Yoko ; Elsaesser, Gregory |
Link: | |
Zeitschrift: | Nature Communications, Jg. 14 (2023-09-11), Heft 1, S. 1-11 |
Veröffentlichung: | 2023 |
Medientyp: | academicJournal |
ISSN: | 2041-1723 (print) |
DOI: | 10.1038/s41467-023-41360-0 |
Schlagwort: |
|
Sonstiges: |
|