A joint role for forced and internally-driven variability in the decadal modulation of global warming.
In: Nature Communications, Jg. 11 (2020-07-31), Heft 1, S. 1-7
Online
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Zugriff:
Despite the observed monotonic increase in greenhouse-gas concentrations, global mean temperature displays important decadal fluctuations typically attributed to both external forcing and internal variability. Here, we provide a robust quantification of the relative contributions of anthropogenic, natural, and internally-driven decadal variability of global mean sea surface temperature (GMSST) by using a unique dataset consisting of 30-member large initial-condition ensembles with five Earth System Models (ESM-LE). We present evidence that a large fraction (~29–53%) of the simulated decadal-scale variance in individual timeseries of GMSST over 1950–2010 is externally forced and largely linked to the representation of volcanic aerosols. Comparison with the future (2010–2070) period suggests that external forcing provides a source of additional decadal-scale variability in the historical period. Given the unpredictable nature of future volcanic aerosol forcing, it is suggested that a large portion of decadal GMSST variability might not be predictable. Global mean sea surface surface temperature shows decadal fluctuations superimposed to the warming trend whose causes are still debated. Here, the authors provide a quantification of relative contributions of different drivers and conclude that both internal and externally-forced variability play a comparable role. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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Titel: |
A joint role for forced and internally-driven variability in the decadal modulation of global warming.
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Autor/in / Beteiligte Person: | Liguori, Giovanni ; McGregor, Shayne ; Arblaster, Julie M. ; Singh, Martin S. ; Meehl, Gerald A. |
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Zeitschrift: | Nature Communications, Jg. 11 (2020-07-31), Heft 1, S. 1-7 |
Veröffentlichung: | 2020 |
Medientyp: | academicJournal |
ISSN: | 2041-1723 (print) |
DOI: | 10.1038/s41467-020-17683-7 |
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