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Pierce's disease (PD) is a vector-borne disease caused by the bacteria Xylella fastidiosa, which affects grapevines in the Americas. Currently, vineyards in continental Europe, the world's largest producer of quality wine, have not yet been affected by PD. However, climate change may alter this situation. Here we incorporate the latest regional climate change projections into a climate-driven epidemiological model to assess the risk of PD epidemics in Europe for different levels of global warming. We found a significant increase in risk above + 2 ∘ C in the main wine-producing regions of France, Italy and Portugal, in addition to a critical tipping point above + 3 ∘ C for the possible spread of PD beyond the Mediterranean. The model identifies decreasing risk trends in Spain, as well as contrasting patterns across the continent with different velocities of risk change and epidemic growth rates. Although there is some uncertainty in model projections over time, spatial patterns of risk are consistent across different climate models. Our study provides a comprehensive analysis of the future of PD at multiple spatial scales (country, Protected Designation of Origin and vineyard), revealing where, why and when PD could become a new threat to the European wine industry.

Titel:	Global warming significantly increases the risk of Pierce's disease epidemics in European vineyards.
Autor/in / Beteiligte Person:	Giménez-Romero, À ; Iturbide, M ; Moralejo, E ; Gutiérrez, JM ; Matías, MA
Link:	Zum Volltext
Zeitschrift:	Scientific reports, Jg. 14 (2024-04-26), Heft 1, S. 9648
Veröffentlichung:	London : Nature Publishing Group, copyright 2011-, 2024
Medientyp:	academicJournal
ISSN:	2045-2322 (electronic)
DOI:	10.1038/s41598-024-59947-y
Schlagwort:	Europe epidemiology Wine Epidemics Farms Climate Change Plant Diseases microbiology Vitis microbiology Xylella pathogenicity Global Warming
Sonstiges:	Nachgewiesen in: MEDLINE Sprachen: English Publication Type: Journal Article; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't Language: English [Sci Rep] 2024 Apr 26; Vol. 14 (1), pp. 9648. <i>Date of Electronic Publication: </i>2024 Apr 26. MeSH Terms: Plant Diseases* / microbiology ; Vitis* / microbiology ; Xylella* / pathogenicity ; Global Warming* ; Europe / epidemiology ; Wine ; Epidemics ; Farms ; Climate Change References: Harvell, C. D. et al. Climate warming and disease risks for terrestrial and marine biota. Science 296, 2158–2162. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1063699 (2002). (PMID: 10.1126/science.106369912077394) ; Delgado-Baquerizo, M. et al. The proportion of soil-borne pathogens increases with warming at the global scale. Nat. Clim. Change 10, 550–554. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0759-3 (2020). (PMID: 10.1038/s41558-020-0759-3) ; Rocklöv, J. & Dubrow, R. Climate change: An enduring challenge for vector-borne disease prevention and control. Nat. 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Grant Information: PID2021-123723OB-C22 Agencia Estatal de Investigación; PID2019-111481RB-I00 Agencia Estatal de Investigación; UERRA Sixth Framework Programme SCR Organism: Xylella fastidiosa Entry Date(s): Date Created: 20240426 Date Completed: 20240426 Latest Revision: 20240429 Update Code: 20240430

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Global warming significantly increases the risk of Pierce's disease epidemics in European vineyards.