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Older adults are generally amongst the most vulnerable to heat and cold. While temperature-related health impacts are projected to increase with global warming, the influence of population aging on these trends remains unclear. Here we show that at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C of global warming, heat-related mortality in 800 locations across 50 countries/areas will increase by 0.5%, 1.0%, and 2.5%, respectively; among which 1 in 5 to 1 in 4 heat-related deaths can be attributed to population aging. Despite a projected decrease in cold-related mortality due to progressive warming alone, population aging will mostly counteract this trend, leading to a net increase in cold-related mortality by 0.1%-0.4% at 1.5-3 °C global warming. Our findings indicate that population aging constitutes a crucial driver for future heat- and cold-related deaths, with increasing mortality burden for both heat and cold due to the aging population.

Titel:	Impact of population aging on future temperature-related mortality at different global warming levels.
Autor/in / Beteiligte Person:	Chen, K ; de Schrijver E ; Sivaraj, S ; Sera, F ; Scovronick, N ; Jiang, L ; Roye, D ; Lavigne, E ; Kyselý, J ; Urban, A ; Schneider, A ; Huber, V ; Madureira, J ; Mistry, MN ; Cvijanovic, I ; Gasparrini, A ; Vicedo-Cabrera, AM
Link:	Zum Volltext
Zeitschrift:	Nature communications, Jg. 15 (2024-02-27), Heft 1, S. 1796
Veröffentlichung:	[London] : Nature Pub. Group, 2024
Medientyp:	academicJournal
ISSN:	2041-1723 (electronic)
DOI:	10.1038/s41467-024-45901-z
Schlagwort:	Temperature Cold Temperature Hot Temperature Mortality Global Warming Climate Change
Sonstiges:	Nachgewiesen in: MEDLINE Sprachen: English Corporate Authors: MCC Collaborative Research Network Publication Type: Journal Article Language: English [Nat Commun] 2024 Feb 27; Vol. 15 (1), pp. 1796. <i>Date of Electronic Publication: </i>2024 Feb 27. MeSH Terms: Global Warming* ; Climate Change* ; Temperature ; Cold Temperature ; Hot Temperature ; Mortality References: de Schrijver, E. et al. Nationwide projections of heat- and cold-related mortality impacts under various climate change and population development scenarios in Switzerland. Environ. Res. Lett. 18, 12 (2023). ; Eyring, V. et al. Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization. Geosci. Model Dev. 9, 1937–1958 (2016). (PMID: 10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016) ; Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M., Sera, F. & Gasparrini, A. Hands-on tutorial on a modeling framework for projections of climate change impacts on health. Epidemiology 30, 321–329 (2019). 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(PMID: 10.1186/1471-2288-14-55247585094021419) Grant Information: MR/V034162/1 United Kingdom MRC_ Medical Research Council; UL1 TR001863 United States TR NCATS NIH HHS Contributed Indexing: Investigator: B Armstrong; R Schneider; A Tobias; C Astrom; Y Guo; Y Honda; R Abrutzky; S Tong; M de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho; PHN Saldiva; PM Correa; NV Ortega; H Kan; S Osorio; H Orru; E Indermitte; JJK Jaakkola; N Ryti; M Pascal; K Katsouyanni; A Analitis; F Mayvaneh; A Entezari; P Goodman; A Zeka; P Michelozzi; F de'Donato; M Hashizume; B Alahmad; MH Diaz; C De la Cruz Valencia; A Overcenco; D Houthuijs; C Ameling; S Rao; G Carrasco-Escobar; X Seposo; SP da Silva; IH Holobaca; F Acquaotta; H Kim; W Lee; C Íñiguez; B Forsberg; MS Ragettli; YL Guo; SC Pan; S Li; V Colistro; A Zanobetti; J Schwartz; TN Dang; D Van Dung; HK Carlsen; JP Cauchi; S Achilleos; R Raz Entry Date(s): Date Created: 20240227 Date Completed: 20240229 Latest Revision: 20240320 Update Code: 20240320 PubMed Central ID: PMC10899213

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Impact of population aging on future temperature-related mortality at different global warming levels.