Widespread retreat of coastal habitat is likely at warming levels above 1.5 °C.
In: Nature, Jg. 621 (2023-09-01), Heft 7977, S. 112-119
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Zugriff:
Several coastal ecosystems-most notably mangroves and tidal marshes-exhibit biogenic feedbacks that are facilitating adjustment to relative sea-level rise (RSLR), including the sequestration of carbon and the trapping of mineral sediment 1 . The stability of reef-top habitats under RSLR is similarly linked to reef-derived sediment accumulation and the vertical accretion of protective coral reefs 2 . The persistence of these ecosystems under high rates of RSLR is contested 3 . Here we show that the probability of vertical adjustment to RSLR inferred from palaeo-stratigraphic observations aligns with contemporary in situ survey measurements. A deficit between tidal marsh and mangrove adjustment and RSLR is likely at 4 mm yr -1 and highly likely at 7 mm yr -1 of RSLR. As rates of RSLR exceed 7 mm yr -1 , the probability that reef islands destabilize through increased shoreline erosion and wave over-topping increases. Increased global warming from 1.5 °C to 2.0 °C would double the area of mapped tidal marsh exposed to 4 mm yr -1 of RSLR by between 2080 and 2100. With 3 °C of warming, nearly all the world's mangrove forests and coral reef islands and almost 40% of mapped tidal marshes are estimated to be exposed to RSLR of at least 7 mm yr -1 . Meeting the Paris agreement targets would minimize disruption to coastal ecosystems.
(© 2023. The Author(s).)
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Widespread retreat of coastal habitat is likely at warming levels above 1.5 °C.
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Autor/in / Beteiligte Person: | Saintilan, N ; Horton, B ; Törnqvist, TE ; Ashe, EL ; Khan, NS ; Schuerch, M ; Perry, C ; Kopp, RE ; Garner, GG ; Murray, N ; Rogers, K ; Albert, S ; Kelleway, J ; Shaw, TA ; Woodroffe, CD ; Lovelock, CE ; Goddard, MM ; Hutley, LB ; Kovalenko, K ; Feher, L ; Guntenspergen, G |
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Zeitschrift: | Nature, Jg. 621 (2023-09-01), Heft 7977, S. 112-119 |
Veröffentlichung: | Basingstoke : Nature Publishing Group ; <i>Original Publication</i>: London, Macmillan Journals ltd., 2023 |
Medientyp: | academicJournal |
ISSN: | 1476-4687 (electronic) |
DOI: | 10.1038/s41586-023-06448-z |
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