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Forecasting long-term consequences of global warming requires knowledge on thermal mortality and how heat stress interacts with other environmental stressors on different timescales. Here, we describe a flexible analytical framework to forecast mortality risks by combining laboratory measurements on tolerance and field temperature records. Our framework incorporates physiological acclimation effects, temporal scale differences and the ecological reality of fluctuations in temperature, and other factors such as oxygen. As a proof of concept, we investigated the heat tolerance of amphipods Dikerogammarus villosus and Echinogammarus trichiatus in the river Waal, the Netherlands. These organisms were acclimated to different temperatures and oxygen levels. By integrating experimental data with high-resolution field data, we derived the daily heat mortality probabilities for each species under different oxygen levels, considering current temperatures as well as 1 and 2°C warming scenarios. By expressing heat stress as a mortality probability rather than a upper critical temperature, these can be used to calculate cumulative annual mortality, allowing the scaling up from individuals to populations. Our findings indicate a substantial increase in annual mortality over the coming decades, driven by projected increases in summer temperatures. Thermal acclimation and adequate oxygenation improved heat tolerance and their effects were magnified on longer timescales. Consequently, acclimation effects appear to be more effective than previously recognized and crucial for persistence under current temperatures. However, even in the best-case scenario, mortality of D. villosus is expected to approach 100% by 2100, while E. trichiatus appears to be less vulnerable with mortality increasing to 60%. Similarly, mortality risks vary spatially: In southern, warmer rivers, riverine animals will need to shift from the main channel toward the cooler head waters to avoid thermal mortality. Overall, this framework generates high-resolution forecasts on how rising temperatures, in combination with other environmental stressors such as hypoxia, impact ecological communities.

Titel:	Long-term forecast of thermal mortality with climate warming in riverine amphipods.
Autor/in / Beteiligte Person:	Verberk, WCEP ; Hoefnagel, KN ; Peralta-Maraver, I ; Floury, M ; Rezende, EL
Link:	Zum Volltext
Zeitschrift:	Global change biology, Jg. 29 (2023-09-01), Heft 17, S. 5033-5043
Veröffentlichung:	<Jan. 2013-> : Oxford : Blackwell Pub. ; <i>Original Publication</i>: Oxford, UK : Blackwell Science, 1995-, 2023
Medientyp:	academicJournal
ISSN:	1365-2486 (electronic)
DOI:	10.1111/gcb.16834
Schlagwort:	Temperature Acclimatization Rivers Netherlands Environmental Monitoring Climate Change Global Warming Amphipoda physiology Heat-Shock Response Aquatic Organisms physiology
Sonstiges:	Nachgewiesen in: MEDLINE Sprachen: English Publication Type: Journal Article Language: English [Glob Chang Biol] 2023 Sep; Vol. 29 (17), pp. 5033-5043. <i>Date of Electronic Publication: </i>2023 Jul 04. MeSH Terms: Climate Change* ; Global Warming* ; Amphipoda* / physiology ; Heat-Shock Response* ; Aquatic Organisms* / physiology ; Temperature ; Acclimatization ; Rivers ; Netherlands ; Environmental Monitoring References: Amarasekare, P., & Savage, V. (2012). A framework for elucidating the temperature dependence of fitness. The American Naturalist, 179(2), 178-191. ; Angilletta, M. J., Jr. (2009). Thermal adaptation: A theoretical and empirical synthesis. Oxford University Press. ; Atkinson, D., & Sibly, R. M. (1997). Why are organisms usually bigger in colder environments? Making sense of a life history puzzle. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 12(6), 235-239. ; Barbarossa, V., Bosmans, J., Wanders, N., King, H., Bierkens, M. F., Huijbregts, M. A., & Schipper, A. M. (2021). 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Grant Information: ANID PIA/BASAL FB0002; 1211113 Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo Científico y Tecnológico; Juan de la Cierva-formación Fellowship Ministerio de Ciencia e Inovación; 016.161.321 Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek Contributed Indexing: Keywords: climate vulnerability; heat tolerance; oxygen limitation; thermal biology; thermal safety margin; water quality Entry Date(s): Date Created: 20230704 Date Completed: 20230802 Latest Revision: 20240227 Update Code: 20240227

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Long-term forecast of thermal mortality with climate warming in riverine amphipods.