Dynamics of tropical forest regeneration in the Mexican Mesoamerican Biological Corridor from 2000 to 2020: does forest regeneration maintain continuous forest cover?

Forest dynamics in the Mexican Mesoamerican Biological Corridor (MxMBC) have been part of a land sharing system, helping maintain forest cover following semi-subsistence land-use through regeneration. Recently, mechanized cash-crop cultivation is occurring, translated in larger, permanent tracts of agriculture in place of core forest. This emerging land-use marks a potential shift in regeneration patterns, with implications for the maintenance of forest cover. We characterize MxMBC forest regeneration patterns from 2000 to 2020 to assess their relationship with the maintenance and expansion of forest cover. Classification of multi-temporal remotely sensed Landsat data reveals a decrease of 2.2% (296 km2) of forest area from 2000 to 2020, with regrowth making back 0.93% of forest (121 km2) by 2020. A spatial model identifies that 75.1% of forest regeneration in the study site occurs in four patterns ranging from permanent (89.2 km2, 41.7%) to ephemeral (71.5 km2, 33.4%). Analyzing the relation between landscape configuration and forest regeneration shows that regrowth occurs in small, widely dispersed forest patches. Spatial patterns of ephemeral regeneration mark two distinct land sharing contexts — ephemeral regeneration buffering core forest loss alongside semi-subsistence agriculture and agroforestry, and ephemeral regeneration masking core forest loss alongside cash crop agriculture. These cases suggest that maintaining forest cover through regeneration is impacted by land-use context, as the regeneration to core forest ratio decreases when permanent cash crop cultivation emerges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]